The Left Front, particularly the Communist Party of India (Marxist), was often only half-jokingly known as a regional party on the campus of Tripura, West Bengal, Kerala and Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) Was spread. in Delhi. The Left lost power in Bengal in 2011 and became so marginalized in state politics that it would be lucky to come in third place this time. It lost power to its arch ideological rival, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), in Tripura in 2018. And so it is only in Kerala that this regional force has control over the power structure.
The state is also important for the Congress, as the party has the best chance of coming to power in Kerala. (In Assam, it is an important stakeholder but the survey suggests that it will fail to exclude the incumbent). Kerala has seen, for over four decades, a pattern where voters lead alternately between two major forces in the state. Based on this traditional parameter, the success of the Congress in the 2019 elections, and the personal bets of Rahul Gandhi (who is an MP from Venad), the election should have been an easy victory for the Congress. But the Left, led by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, has succeeded in projecting an image of effective governance and service delivery in many areas during health and natural disasters. It has also formed a broad coalition.
While the BJP may improve its vote share in the state, the result in Kerala is significant as it will determine the balance of power within the wider national opposition, particularly between the Congress and non-Congress forces.